GW2 Profits
Research
Items Tool
Recipes Tool
Delta Price Tool
Suggestions Tool
Process
Craft Everything Tool
Crafting List Tool
Mystic Forge Crafting Tool
Precursor Forging Tool
Flip
Spread Tool
Bag and Salvageable Tool
Equipment Salvage Tool
Luck and Basic Materials Salvage Tool
Expand All Recipes
Save setting choices in Cookies:
Precursor Forging Tool

I am not sure of these numbers. I am 100% sure the listed ingredients are the cheapest to make the desired precursor, but I am not 100% on the average number of tries to get the precursor (the current estimate is from other people publishing their results - mostly from reddit's Nugkill).

Spirit Shard and Karma Items excluded (Allow SS and Karma items)

The Bard
Carcharias
Chaos Gun
The Chosen
The Colossus
Dawn + Dusk
The Energizer
Howl
The Hunter
Leaf of Kudzu
The Legend
The Lover
Rage
Rodgort's Flame
Spark
Storm
Tooth of Frostfang
Venom
Zap
Random Precursor from weapons
Random Precursor from any rare item

1 Mystic Forge Stone currently costs 138375 to buy (It's only recommended to use it to take the place of an item worth more than that, or you get them for free)

Rare Ingredients
PrecursorPrice to MFIngredient 1Ingredient 2Ingredient 3Ingredient 4

Spark
Exotic Weapon Dagger 80
10.62- / day
3300109

3699898

The cheapest
11 Rares
used in the calculation
4 bought
Rares
3382688
(-7%) profit

781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Carrion Flame Dagger of Water
Rare 60, buy for 1430
1.23+ / day
Carrion Flame Dagger of Air
Rare 80, buy for 1449
19.18-+ / day
Carrion Flame Dagger of Air
Rare 80, buy for 1449
19.18-+ / day
Carrion Flame Dagger of Air
Rare 80, buy for 1449
19.18-+ / day
3 bought + 1 crafted
Rares
4087683
(-23%) profit

781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Carrion Flame Dagger of Water
Rare 60, buy for 1430
1.23+ / day
Carrion Flame Dagger of Air
Rare 80, buy for 1449
19.18-+ / day
Carrion Flame Dagger of Air
Rare 80, buy for 1449
19.18-+ / day
Assassin's Krait Ripper
Rare 80, craft for 2653
Expand Recipe
2 bought + 2 crafted
Rares
4792678
(-34%) profit

781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Carrion Flame Dagger of Water
Rare 60, buy for 1430
1.23+ / day
Carrion Flame Dagger of Air
Rare 80, buy for 1449
19.18-+ / day
Assassin's Krait Ripper
Rare 80, craft for 2653
Expand Recipe
Assassin's Krait Ripper
Rare 80, craft for 2653
Expand Recipe
1 bought + 3 crafted
Rares
5497673
(-43%) profit

781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Carrion Flame Dagger of Water
Rare 60, buy for 1430
1.23+ / day
Assassin's Krait Ripper
Rare 80, craft for 2653
Expand Recipe
Assassin's Krait Ripper
Rare 80, craft for 2653
Expand Recipe
Assassin's Krait Ripper
Rare 80, craft for 2653
Expand Recipe
4 crafted
Rares
6213794
(-49%) profit

781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Assassin's Krait Ripper
Rare 80, craft for 2653
Expand Recipe
Assassin's Krait Ripper
Rare 80, craft for 2653
Expand Recipe
Assassin's Krait Ripper
Rare 80, craft for 2653
Expand Recipe
Assassin's Krait Ripper
Rare 80, craft for 2653
Expand Recipe
Exotic Ingredients
PrecursorPrice to MFIngredient 1Ingredient 2Ingredient 3Ingredient 4

Spark
Exotic Weapon Dagger 80
10.62- / day
3300109

3699898

The cheapest
8 Exotics
used in the calculation
4 bought
Exotics
2274792
(38%) profit

139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Dire Orrian Dagger of Vision
Exotic 70, buy for 5297
3.25+ / day
Rampager's Iron Dagger of the Geomancer
Exotic 79, buy for 5522
82.40+ / day
Rampager's Iron Dagger of the Geomancer
Exotic 79, buy for 5522
82.40+ / day
Rampager's Iron Dagger of the Geomancer
Exotic 79, buy for 5522
82.40+ / day
3 bought + 1 crafted
Exotics
2951517
(7%) profit

139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Dire Orrian Dagger of Vision
Exotic 70, buy for 5297
3.25+ / day
Rampager's Iron Dagger of the Geomancer
Exotic 79, buy for 5522
82.40+ / day
Rampager's Iron Dagger of the Geomancer
Exotic 79, buy for 5522
82.40+ / day
Knight's Pearl Carver
Exotic 80, craft for 12026
Expand Recipe
2 bought + 2 crafted
Exotics
3604832
(-13%) profit

139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Dire Orrian Dagger of Vision
Exotic 70, buy for 5297
3.25+ / day
Dire Orrian Dagger of Vision
Exotic 70, buy for 5297
3.25+ / day
Knight's Pearl Carver
Exotic 80, craft for 12026
Expand Recipe
Knight's Pearl Carver
Exotic 80, craft for 12026
Expand Recipe
1 bought + 3 crafted
Exotics
4304968
(-27%) profit

139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Dire Orrian Dagger of Vision
Exotic 70, buy for 5297
3.25+ / day
Knight's Pearl Carver
Exotic 80, craft for 12026
Expand Recipe
Knight's Pearl Carver
Exotic 80, craft for 12026
Expand Recipe
Knight's Pearl Carver
Exotic 80, craft for 12026
Expand Recipe
4 crafted
Exotics
5005104
(-37%) profit

139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Knight's Pearl Carver
Exotic 80, craft for 12026
Expand Recipe
Knight's Pearl Carver
Exotic 80, craft for 12026
Expand Recipe
Knight's Pearl Carver
Exotic 80, craft for 12026
Expand Recipe
Knight's Pearl Carver
Exotic 80, craft for 12026
Expand Recipe


Help and Info:
 ● Gives a list of all precursors for you to select, then tells you the cheapest ways to make the precursor you selected by throwing them into the Mystic Forge.
 ● The top combination will have all purchased ingredients. The second combination will have 1 crafted and 3 purchased ingredients. The third combination will have 2 crafted and 2 purchased ingredients. The fourth combination will have 3 crafted and 1 purchased ingredients. The last combination will have all crafted ingredients. You can pick which you want to use.
 ● 'Precursor' is which precursor is being made, and the buy order and sell listing prices for that precursor.
 ● 'Price to MF' is how much it costs to buy all the ingredients that will give you 1 precursor (on average). % profit is if you're selling it. The price and number of items assumes you re-MF any products of failed attempts.
 ● 'Ingredient 1,2,3,4' is which are the cheapest ingredients to throw into the forge and how much to buy or craft them.
 ● These are all averages. That means there will be times when no precursor comes out for 1000 attempts, and times when you get 2 in a row, for example. The strategy is that with a statistically significant amount of tries, you will observe the average return.

Precursor Drop Rates:
 Drop rates is from research posted on reddit from the production of 289 precursors.
 1 in 5 promotes rare to exotic, but appears to have less chance of getting a precursor
 Average level of ingredients needs to be at least 75 to guarantee a level 80 (and thus, a precursor)
 1 in 139 attempts produces a precursor from exotic (start with 416 exotics, including throwing failures back in)
 1 in 781 attempts produces a precursor from rares (start with 2,342 rares, including throwing failures back in)