I am not sure of these numbers. I am 100% sure the listed ingredients are the cheapest to make the desired precursor, but I am not 100% on the average number of tries to get the precursor (the current estimate is from other people publishing their results - mostly from reddit's Nugkill).
Spirit Shard and Karma Items excluded (Allow SS and Karma items)
The Bard
Carcharias
Chaos Gun
The Chosen
The Colossus
Dawn + Dusk
The Energizer
Howl
The Hunter
Leaf of Kudzu
The Legend
The Lover
Rage
Rodgort's Flame
Spark
Storm
Tooth of Frostfang
Venom
Zap
Random Precursor from weapons
Random Precursor from any rare item
1 Mystic Forge Stone currently costs 14
45
40
to buy (It's only recommended to use it to take the place of an item worth more than that, or you get them for free)| Rare Ingredients | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precursor | Price to MF | Ingredient 1 | Ingredient 2 | Ingredient 3 | Ingredient 4 |
| Random Precursor Exotic Weapon Random 80 6.79+ / day  227 2653271 1715The cheapest 17 Rares used in the calculation | 4 bought Rares 234 5104(-2%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Cleric's Iron Dagger of Smoldering Rare 62, buy for 10 021.49-+ / day | Magi's Aureate Charm Rare 80, buy for 10 011.61-+ / day | Magi's Aureate Charm Rare 80, buy for 10 011.61-+ / day | Magi's Aureate Charm Rare 80, buy for 10 011.61-+ / day |
| 3 bought + 1 crafted Rares 269 4674(-14%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Magi's Aureate Charm Rare 80, buy for 10 011.61-+ / day | Magi's Aureate Charm Rare 80, buy for 10 011.61-+ / day | Magi's Aureate Charm Rare 80, buy for 10 011.61-+ / day | Assassin's Godskull Trihorn Rare 65, craft for 15 99Expand Recipe | |
| 2 bought + 2 crafted Rares 466 2687(-51%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Magi's Aureate Charm Rare 80, buy for 10 011.61-+ / day | Magi's Aureate Charm Rare 80, buy for 10 011.61-+ / day | Assassin's Godskull Trihorn Rare 65, craft for 15 99Expand Recipe | Knight's Krait Ripper Rare 80, craft for 43 62Expand Recipe | |
| 1 bought + 3 crafted Rares 663 0701(-65%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Magi's Aureate Charm Rare 80, buy for 10 011.61-+ / day | Assassin's Godskull Trihorn Rare 65, craft for 15 99Expand Recipe | Knight's Krait Ripper Rare 80, craft for 43 62Expand Recipe | Knight's Krait Ripper Rare 80, craft for 43 62Expand Recipe | |
| 4 crafted Rares 859 8715(-73%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Assassin's Godskull Trihorn Rare 65, craft for 15 99Expand Recipe | Knight's Krait Ripper Rare 80, craft for 43 62Expand Recipe | Knight's Krait Ripper Rare 80, craft for 43 62Expand Recipe | Knight's Krait Ripper Rare 80, craft for 43 62Expand Recipe | |
| Exotic Ingredients | |||||
| Precursor | Price to MF | Ingredient 1 | Ingredient 2 | Ingredient 3 | Ingredient 4 |
| Random Precursor Exotic Weapon Random 80 6.79+ / day 227 2653271 1715The cheapest 13 Exotics used in the calculation | 4 bought Exotics 85 6623(169%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Berserker's Steam Speargun of Stamina Exotic 65, buy for 18 191.91+ / day | Soldier's Pearl Blunderbuss Exotic 80, buy for 21 386.70+ / day | Soldier's Pearl Blunderbuss Exotic 80, buy for 21 386.70+ / day | Soldier's Pearl Blunderbuss Exotic 80, buy for 21 386.70+ / day |
| 3 bought + 1 crafted Exotics 87 4623(164%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Berserker's Steam Speargun of Stamina Exotic 65, buy for 18 191.91+ / day | Soldier's Pearl Blunderbuss Exotic 80, buy for 21 386.70+ / day | Soldier's Pearl Blunderbuss Exotic 80, buy for 21 386.70+ / day | Plaguedoctor's Pearl Quarterstaff Exotic 80, craft for 23 11Expand Recipe | |
| 2 bought + 2 crafted Exotics 89 2624(158%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Berserker's Steam Speargun of Stamina Exotic 65, buy for 18 191.91+ / day | Soldier's Pearl Blunderbuss Exotic 80, buy for 21 386.70+ / day | Plaguedoctor's Pearl Quarterstaff Exotic 80, craft for 23 11Expand Recipe | Plaguedoctor's Pearl Quarterstaff Exotic 80, craft for 23 11Expand Recipe | |
| 1 bought + 3 crafted Exotics 91 0624(153%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Berserker's Steam Speargun of Stamina Exotic 65, buy for 18 191.91+ / day | Plaguedoctor's Pearl Quarterstaff Exotic 80, craft for 23 11Expand Recipe | Plaguedoctor's Pearl Quarterstaff Exotic 80, craft for 23 11Expand Recipe | Plaguedoctor's Pearl Quarterstaff Exotic 80, craft for 23 11Expand Recipe | |
| 4 crafted Sorry no result found 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | , craft for 0 Expand Recipe | , craft for 0 Expand Recipe | , craft for 0 Expand Recipe | , craft for 0 Expand Recipe | |
Help and Info:
● Gives a list of all precursors for you to select, then tells you the cheapest ways to make the precursor you selected by throwing them into the Mystic Forge.
● The top combination will have all purchased ingredients. The second combination will have 1 crafted and 3 purchased ingredients. The third combination will have 2 crafted and 2 purchased ingredients. The fourth combination will have 3 crafted and 1 purchased ingredients. The last combination will have all crafted ingredients. You can pick which you want to use.
● 'Precursor' is which precursor is being made, and the buy order and sell listing prices for that precursor.
● 'Price to MF' is how much it costs to buy all the ingredients that will give you 1 precursor (on average). % profit is if you're selling it. The price and number of items assumes you re-MF any products of failed attempts.
● 'Ingredient 1,2,3,4' is which are the cheapest ingredients to throw into the forge and how much to buy or craft them.
● These are all averages. That means there will be times when no precursor comes out for 1000 attempts, and times when you get 2 in a row, for example. The strategy is that with a statistically significant amount of tries, you will observe the average return.
Precursor Drop Rates:
Drop rates is from research posted on reddit from the production of 289 precursors.
1 in 5 promotes rare to exotic, but appears to have less chance of getting a precursor
Average level of ingredients needs to be at least 75 to guarantee a level 80 (and thus, a precursor)
1 in 139 attempts produces a precursor from exotic (start with 416 exotics, including throwing failures back in)
1 in 781 attempts produces a precursor from rares (start with 2,342 rares, including throwing failures back in)