I am not sure of these numbers. I am 100% sure the listed ingredients are the cheapest to make the desired precursor, but I am not 100% on the average number of tries to get the precursor (the current estimate is from other people publishing their results - mostly from reddit's Nugkill).
Spirit Shard and Karma Items excluded (Allow SS and Karma items)
The Bard
Carcharias
Chaos Gun
The Chosen
The Colossus
Dawn + Dusk
The Energizer
Howl
The Hunter
Leaf of Kudzu
The Legend
The Lover
Rage
Rodgort's Flame
Spark
Storm
Tooth of Frostfang
Venom
Zap
Random Precursor from weapons
Random Precursor from any rare item
1 Mystic Forge Stone currently costs 13
45
95
to buy (It's only recommended to use it to take the place of an item worth more than that, or you get them for free)| Rare Ingredients | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precursor | Price to MF | Ingredient 1 | Ingredient 2 | Ingredient 3 | Ingredient 4 |
 Venom Exotic Weapon Trident 80 5.32- / day  30 020339 9799The cheapest 8 Rares used in the calculation | 4 bought Rares 328 1389(-90%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Carrion Krait Trident Rare 80, buy for 14 013.83-+ / day | Carrion Krait Trident Rare 80, buy for 14 013.83-+ / day | Carrion Krait Trident Rare 80, buy for 14 013.83-+ / day | Carrion Krait Trident Rare 80, buy for 14 013.83-+ / day |
| 3 bought + 1 crafted Rares 416 2633(-92%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Carrion Krait Trident Rare 80, buy for 14 013.83-+ / day | Carrion Krait Trident Rare 80, buy for 14 013.83-+ / day | Carrion Krait Trident Rare 80, buy for 14 013.83-+ / day | Rampager's Krait Trident Rare 80, craft for 29 06Expand Recipe | |
| 2 bought + 2 crafted Rares 504 3877(-93%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Carrion Krait Trident Rare 80, buy for 14 013.83-+ / day | Carrion Krait Trident Rare 80, buy for 14 013.83-+ / day | Rampager's Krait Trident Rare 80, craft for 29 06Expand Recipe | Rampager's Krait Trident Rare 80, craft for 29 06Expand Recipe | |
| 1 bought + 3 crafted Rares 592 5120(-94%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Carrion Krait Trident Rare 80, buy for 14 013.83-+ / day | Rampager's Krait Trident Rare 80, craft for 29 06Expand Recipe | Rampager's Krait Trident Rare 80, craft for 29 06Expand Recipe | Rampager's Krait Trident Rare 80, craft for 29 06Expand Recipe | |
| 4 crafted Rares 680 6364(-95%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Rampager's Krait Trident Rare 80, craft for 29 06Expand Recipe | Rampager's Krait Trident Rare 80, craft for 29 06Expand Recipe | Rampager's Krait Trident Rare 80, craft for 29 06Expand Recipe | Rampager's Krait Trident Rare 80, craft for 29 06Expand Recipe | |
| Exotic Ingredients | |||||
| Precursor | Price to MF | Ingredient 1 | Ingredient 2 | Ingredient 3 | Ingredient 4 |
Venom Exotic Weapon Trident 80 5.32- / day 30 020339 9799The cheapest 7 Exotics used in the calculation | 4 bought Exotics 134 4710(-75%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Rampager's Black Earth Trident of the Geomancer Exotic 76, buy for 32 3163.10-+ / day | Rampager's Black Earth Trident of the Geomancer Exotic 76, buy for 32 3163.10-+ / day | Rampager's Black Earth Trident of the Geomancer Exotic 76, buy for 32 3163.10-+ / day | Rampager's Black Earth Trident of the Geomancer Exotic 76, buy for 32 3163.10-+ / day |
| 3 bought + 1 crafted Exotics 285 0903(-88%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Rampager's Black Earth Trident of Vision Exotic 71, buy for 25 742.02-+ / day | Rampager's Black Earth Trident of the Geomancer Exotic 76, buy for 32 3163.10-+ / day | Rampager's Black Earth Trident of the Geomancer Exotic 76, buy for 32 3163.10-+ / day | Rabid Pearl Trident Exotic 80, craft for 1 8364Expand Recipe | |
| 2 bought + 2 crafted Exotics 435 7096(-92%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Rampager's Black Earth Trident of Vision Exotic 71, buy for 25 742.02-+ / day | Rampager's Black Earth Trident of Vision Exotic 71, buy for 25 742.02-+ / day | Rabid Pearl Trident Exotic 80, craft for 1 8364Expand Recipe | Rabid Pearl Trident Exotic 80, craft for 1 8364Expand Recipe | |
| 1 bought + 3 crafted Exotics 600 0007(-94%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Rampager's Black Earth Trident of Vision Exotic 71, buy for 25 742.02-+ / day | Rabid Pearl Trident Exotic 80, craft for 1 8364Expand Recipe | Rabid Pearl Trident Exotic 80, craft for 1 8364Expand Recipe | Rabid Pearl Trident Exotic 80, craft for 1 8364Expand Recipe | |
| 4 crafted Exotics 764 2918(-96%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Rabid Pearl Trident Exotic 80, craft for 1 8364Expand Recipe | Rabid Pearl Trident Exotic 80, craft for 1 8364Expand Recipe | Rabid Pearl Trident Exotic 80, craft for 1 8364Expand Recipe | Rabid Pearl Trident Exotic 80, craft for 1 8364Expand Recipe | |
Help and Info:
● Gives a list of all precursors for you to select, then tells you the cheapest ways to make the precursor you selected by throwing them into the Mystic Forge.
● The top combination will have all purchased ingredients. The second combination will have 1 crafted and 3 purchased ingredients. The third combination will have 2 crafted and 2 purchased ingredients. The fourth combination will have 3 crafted and 1 purchased ingredients. The last combination will have all crafted ingredients. You can pick which you want to use.
● 'Precursor' is which precursor is being made, and the buy order and sell listing prices for that precursor.
● 'Price to MF' is how much it costs to buy all the ingredients that will give you 1 precursor (on average). % profit is if you're selling it. The price and number of items assumes you re-MF any products of failed attempts.
● 'Ingredient 1,2,3,4' is which are the cheapest ingredients to throw into the forge and how much to buy or craft them.
● These are all averages. That means there will be times when no precursor comes out for 1000 attempts, and times when you get 2 in a row, for example. The strategy is that with a statistically significant amount of tries, you will observe the average return.
Precursor Drop Rates:
Drop rates is from research posted on reddit from the production of 289 precursors.
1 in 5 promotes rare to exotic, but appears to have less chance of getting a precursor
Average level of ingredients needs to be at least 75 to guarantee a level 80 (and thus, a precursor)
1 in 139 attempts produces a precursor from exotic (start with 416 exotics, including throwing failures back in)
1 in 781 attempts produces a precursor from rares (start with 2,342 rares, including throwing failures back in)