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Precursor Forging Tool

I am not sure of these numbers. I am 100% sure the listed ingredients are the cheapest to make the desired precursor, but I am not 100% on the average number of tries to get the precursor (the current estimate is from other people publishing their results - mostly from reddit's Nugkill).

Spirit Shard and Karma Items excluded (Allow SS and Karma items)

The Bard
Carcharias
Chaos Gun
The Chosen
The Colossus
Dawn + Dusk
The Energizer
Howl
The Hunter
Leaf of Kudzu
The Legend
The Lover
Rage
Rodgort's Flame
Spark
Storm
Tooth of Frostfang
Venom
Zap
Random Precursor from weapons
Random Precursor from any rare item

1 Mystic Forge Stone currently costs 165915 to buy (It's only recommended to use it to take the place of an item worth more than that, or you get them for free)

Rare Ingredients
PrecursorPrice to MFIngredient 1Ingredient 2Ingredient 3Ingredient 4

The Lover
Exotic Weapon ShortBow 80
6.09+ / day
1565015

1999998

The cheapest
11 Rares
used in the calculation
4 bought
Rares
2878534
(-41%) profit
781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Cleric's Soft Wood Short Bow of Hobbling
Rare 72, buy for 1202
1.14-+ / day
Cleric's Soft Wood Short Bow of Hobbling
Rare 72, buy for 1202
1.14-+ / day
Cavalier's Aureate Short Bow
Rare 80, buy for 1256
2.37-+ / day
Cavalier's Aureate Short Bow
Rare 80, buy for 1256
2.37-+ / day
3 bought + 1 crafted
Rares
4948433
(-66%) profit
781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Cavalier's Aureate Short Bow
Rare 80, buy for 1256
2.37-+ / day
Cavalier's Aureate Short Bow
Rare 80, buy for 1256
2.37-+ / day
Cavalier's Aureate Short Bow
Rare 80, buy for 1256
2.37-+ / day
Assassin's Godskull Short Bow
Rare 65, craft for 4683
Expand Recipe
2 bought + 2 crafted
Rares
7320472
(-77%) profit
781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Cavalier's Aureate Short Bow
Rare 80, buy for 1256
2.37-+ / day
Cavalier's Aureate Short Bow
Rare 80, buy for 1256
2.37-+ / day
Assassin's Godskull Short Bow
Rare 65, craft for 4683
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Short Bow
Rare 80, craft for 5307
Expand Recipe
1 bought + 3 crafted
Rares
9692511
(-82%) profit
781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Cavalier's Aureate Short Bow
Rare 80, buy for 1256
2.37-+ / day
Assassin's Godskull Short Bow
Rare 65, craft for 4683
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Short Bow
Rare 80, craft for 5307
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Short Bow
Rare 80, craft for 5307
Expand Recipe
4 crafted
Rares
1,2064551
(-86%) profit
781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Assassin's Godskull Short Bow
Rare 65, craft for 4683
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Short Bow
Rare 80, craft for 5307
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Short Bow
Rare 80, craft for 5307
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Short Bow
Rare 80, craft for 5307
Expand Recipe
Exotic Ingredients
PrecursorPrice to MFIngredient 1Ingredient 2Ingredient 3Ingredient 4

The Lover
Exotic Weapon ShortBow 80
6.09+ / day
1565015

1999998

The cheapest
7 Exotics
used in the calculation
4 bought
Exotics
2159611
(-21%) profit
139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Carrion Tribal Short Bow of Accuracy
Exotic 78, buy for 5189
3.30+ / day
Carrion Tribal Short Bow of Accuracy
Exotic 78, buy for 5189
3.30+ / day
Carrion Tribal Short Bow of Accuracy
Exotic 78, buy for 5189
3.30+ / day
Carrion Tribal Short Bow of Accuracy
Exotic 78, buy for 5189
3.30+ / day
3 bought + 1 crafted
Exotics
4876293
(-65%) profit
139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Carrion Tribal Short Bow of Accuracy
Exotic 78, buy for 5189
3.30+ / day
Carrion Tribal Short Bow of Accuracy
Exotic 78, buy for 5189
3.30+ / day
Carrion Tribal Short Bow of Accuracy
Exotic 78, buy for 5189
3.30+ / day
Rabid Pearl Needler
Exotic 80, craft for 31299
Expand Recipe
2 bought + 2 crafted
Exotics
7592976
(-78%) profit
139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Carrion Tribal Short Bow of Accuracy
Exotic 78, buy for 5189
3.30+ / day
Carrion Tribal Short Bow of Accuracy
Exotic 78, buy for 5189
3.30+ / day
Rabid Pearl Needler
Exotic 80, craft for 31299
Expand Recipe
Rabid Pearl Needler
Exotic 80, craft for 31299
Expand Recipe
1 bought + 3 crafted
Exotics
1,0309658
(-84%) profit
139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Carrion Tribal Short Bow of Accuracy
Exotic 78, buy for 5189
3.30+ / day
Rabid Pearl Needler
Exotic 80, craft for 31299
Expand Recipe
Rabid Pearl Needler
Exotic 80, craft for 31299
Expand Recipe
Rabid Pearl Needler
Exotic 80, craft for 31299
Expand Recipe
4 crafted
Exotics
1,3026340
(-87%) profit
139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Rabid Pearl Needler
Exotic 80, craft for 31299
Expand Recipe
Rabid Pearl Needler
Exotic 80, craft for 31299
Expand Recipe
Rabid Pearl Needler
Exotic 80, craft for 31299
Expand Recipe
Rabid Pearl Needler
Exotic 80, craft for 31299
Expand Recipe


Help and Info:
 ● Gives a list of all precursors for you to select, then tells you the cheapest ways to make the precursor you selected by throwing them into the Mystic Forge.
 ● The top combination will have all purchased ingredients. The second combination will have 1 crafted and 3 purchased ingredients. The third combination will have 2 crafted and 2 purchased ingredients. The fourth combination will have 3 crafted and 1 purchased ingredients. The last combination will have all crafted ingredients. You can pick which you want to use.
 ● 'Precursor' is which precursor is being made, and the buy order and sell listing prices for that precursor.
 ● 'Price to MF' is how much it costs to buy all the ingredients that will give you 1 precursor (on average). % profit is if you're selling it. The price and number of items assumes you re-MF any products of failed attempts.
 ● 'Ingredient 1,2,3,4' is which are the cheapest ingredients to throw into the forge and how much to buy or craft them.
 ● These are all averages. That means there will be times when no precursor comes out for 1000 attempts, and times when you get 2 in a row, for example. The strategy is that with a statistically significant amount of tries, you will observe the average return.

Precursor Drop Rates:
 Drop rates is from research posted on reddit from the production of 289 precursors.
 1 in 5 promotes rare to exotic, but appears to have less chance of getting a precursor
 Average level of ingredients needs to be at least 75 to guarantee a level 80 (and thus, a precursor)
 1 in 139 attempts produces a precursor from exotic (start with 416 exotics, including throwing failures back in)
 1 in 781 attempts produces a precursor from rares (start with 2,342 rares, including throwing failures back in)