I am not sure of these numbers. I am 100% sure the listed ingredients are the cheapest to make the desired precursor, but I am not 100% on the average number of tries to get the precursor (the current estimate is from other people publishing their results - mostly from reddit's Nugkill).
Spirit Shard and Karma Items excluded (Allow SS and Karma items)
The Bard
Carcharias
Chaos Gun
The Chosen
The Colossus
Dawn + Dusk
The Energizer
Howl
The Hunter
Leaf of Kudzu
The Legend
The Lover
Rage
Rodgort's Flame
Spark
Storm
Tooth of Frostfang
Venom
Zap
Random Precursor from weapons
Random Precursor from any rare item
1 Mystic Forge Stone currently costs 17
19
90
to buy (It's only recommended to use it to take the place of an item worth more than that, or you get them for free)| Rare Ingredients | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precursor | Price to MF | Ingredient 1 | Ingredient 2 | Ingredient 3 | Ingredient 4 |
 The Lover Exotic Weapon ShortBow 80 1.46+ / day  96 0202118 7491The cheapest 16 Rares used in the calculation | 4 bought Rares 259 7473(-61%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Dire Orrian Short Bow of Energy Rare 74, buy for 10 3174.99-+ / day | Dire Orrian Short Bow of Energy Rare 74, buy for 10 3174.99-+ / day | Dire Orrian Short Bow of Energy Rare 74, buy for 10 3174.99-+ / day | Elonian Pocketbow Rare 80, buy for 13 43138.68-+ / day |
| 3 bought + 1 crafted Rares 474 7591(-79%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Dire Orrian Short Bow of Energy Rare 74, buy for 10 3174.99-+ / day | Dire Orrian Short Bow of Energy Rare 74, buy for 10 3174.99-+ / day | Dire Orrian Short Bow of Energy Rare 74, buy for 10 3174.99-+ / day | Rampager's Krait Short Bow Rare 80, craft for 50 15Expand Recipe | |
| 2 bought + 2 crafted Rares 708 0399(-86%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Dire Orrian Short Bow of Energy Rare 74, buy for 10 3174.99-+ / day | Dire Orrian Short Bow of Energy Rare 74, buy for 10 3174.99-+ / day | Rampager's Krait Short Bow Rare 80, craft for 50 15Expand Recipe | Rampager's Krait Short Bow Rare 80, craft for 50 15Expand Recipe | |
| 1 bought + 3 crafted Rares 941 3207(-89%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Dire Orrian Short Bow of Energy Rare 74, buy for 10 3174.99-+ / day | Rampager's Krait Short Bow Rare 80, craft for 50 15Expand Recipe | Rampager's Krait Short Bow Rare 80, craft for 50 15Expand Recipe | Rampager's Krait Short Bow Rare 80, craft for 50 15Expand Recipe | |
| 4 crafted Rares 1,174 6015(-91%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Rampager's Krait Short Bow Rare 80, craft for 50 15Expand Recipe | Rampager's Krait Short Bow Rare 80, craft for 50 15Expand Recipe | Rampager's Krait Short Bow Rare 80, craft for 50 15Expand Recipe | Rampager's Krait Short Bow Rare 80, craft for 50 15Expand Recipe | |
| Exotic Ingredients | |||||
| Precursor | Price to MF | Ingredient 1 | Ingredient 2 | Ingredient 3 | Ingredient 4 |
The Lover Exotic Weapon ShortBow 80 1.46+ / day 96 0202118 7491The cheapest 15 Exotics used in the calculation | 4 bought Exotics 169 4935(-40%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Cleric's Soft Wood Short Bow of Venom Exotic 72, buy for 37 00119.52-+ / day | Cleric's Soft Wood Short Bow of Venom Exotic 72, buy for 37 00119.52-+ / day | Knight's Pearl Needler Exotic 80, buy for 44 452.38-+ / day | Knight's Pearl Needler Exotic 80, buy for 44 452.38-+ / day |
| 3 bought + 1 crafted Exotics 229 4977(-56%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Cleric's Soft Wood Short Bow of Venom Exotic 72, buy for 37 00119.52-+ / day | Cleric's Soft Wood Short Bow of Venom Exotic 72, buy for 37 00119.52-+ / day | Knight's Pearl Needler Exotic 80, buy for 44 452.38-+ / day | Plaguedoctor's Pearl Needler Exotic 80, craft for 1 0212Expand Recipe | |
| 2 bought + 2 crafted Exotics 289 5019(-65%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Cleric's Soft Wood Short Bow of Venom Exotic 72, buy for 37 00119.52-+ / day | Cleric's Soft Wood Short Bow of Venom Exotic 72, buy for 37 00119.52-+ / day | Plaguedoctor's Pearl Needler Exotic 80, craft for 1 0212Expand Recipe | Plaguedoctor's Pearl Needler Exotic 80, craft for 1 0212Expand Recipe | |
| 1 bought + 3 crafted Exotics 357 2577(-72%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Cleric's Soft Wood Short Bow of Venom Exotic 72, buy for 37 00119.52-+ / day | Plaguedoctor's Pearl Needler Exotic 80, craft for 1 0212Expand Recipe | Plaguedoctor's Pearl Needler Exotic 80, craft for 1 0212Expand Recipe | Plaguedoctor's Pearl Needler Exotic 80, craft for 1 0212Expand Recipe | |
| 4 crafted Exotics 425 0135(-76%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Plaguedoctor's Pearl Needler Exotic 80, craft for 1 0212Expand Recipe | Plaguedoctor's Pearl Needler Exotic 80, craft for 1 0212Expand Recipe | Plaguedoctor's Pearl Needler Exotic 80, craft for 1 0212Expand Recipe | Plaguedoctor's Pearl Needler Exotic 80, craft for 1 0212Expand Recipe | |
Help and Info:
● Gives a list of all precursors for you to select, then tells you the cheapest ways to make the precursor you selected by throwing them into the Mystic Forge.
● The top combination will have all purchased ingredients. The second combination will have 1 crafted and 3 purchased ingredients. The third combination will have 2 crafted and 2 purchased ingredients. The fourth combination will have 3 crafted and 1 purchased ingredients. The last combination will have all crafted ingredients. You can pick which you want to use.
● 'Precursor' is which precursor is being made, and the buy order and sell listing prices for that precursor.
● 'Price to MF' is how much it costs to buy all the ingredients that will give you 1 precursor (on average). % profit is if you're selling it. The price and number of items assumes you re-MF any products of failed attempts.
● 'Ingredient 1,2,3,4' is which are the cheapest ingredients to throw into the forge and how much to buy or craft them.
● These are all averages. That means there will be times when no precursor comes out for 1000 attempts, and times when you get 2 in a row, for example. The strategy is that with a statistically significant amount of tries, you will observe the average return.
Precursor Drop Rates:
Drop rates is from research posted on reddit from the production of 289 precursors.
1 in 5 promotes rare to exotic, but appears to have less chance of getting a precursor
Average level of ingredients needs to be at least 75 to guarantee a level 80 (and thus, a precursor)
1 in 139 attempts produces a precursor from exotic (start with 416 exotics, including throwing failures back in)
1 in 781 attempts produces a precursor from rares (start with 2,342 rares, including throwing failures back in)