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Precursor Forging Tool

I am not sure of these numbers. I am 100% sure the listed ingredients are the cheapest to make the desired precursor, but I am not 100% on the average number of tries to get the precursor (the current estimate is from other people publishing their results - mostly from reddit's Nugkill).

Spirit Shard and Karma Items excluded (Allow SS and Karma items)

The Bard
Carcharias
Chaos Gun
The Chosen
The Colossus
Dawn + Dusk
The Energizer
Howl
The Hunter
Leaf of Kudzu
The Legend
The Lover
Rage
Rodgort's Flame
Spark
Storm
Tooth of Frostfang
Venom
Zap
Random Precursor from weapons
Random Precursor from any rare item

1 Mystic Forge Stone currently costs 152280 to buy (It's only recommended to use it to take the place of an item worth more than that, or you get them for free)

Rare Ingredients
PrecursorPrice to MFIngredient 1Ingredient 2Ingredient 3Ingredient 4

The Chosen
Exotic Weapon Shield 80
6.23+ / day
1200010

1590008

The cheapest
12 Rares
used in the calculation
4 bought
Rares
3079962
(-56%) profit

781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Dire Orrian Shield of Corruption
Rare 67, buy for 1018
1.23+ / day
Rampager's Iron Shield of Corruption
Rare 78, buy for 1414
11.25+ / day
Rampager's Iron Shield of Corruption
Rare 78, buy for 1414
11.25+ / day
Rampager's Iron Shield of Corruption
Rare 78, buy for 1414
11.25+ / day
3 bought + 1 crafted
Rares
3784957
(-64%) profit

781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Dire Orrian Shield of Corruption
Rare 67, buy for 1018
1.23+ / day
Rampager's Iron Shield of Corruption
Rare 78, buy for 1414
11.25+ / day
Rampager's Iron Shield of Corruption
Rare 78, buy for 1414
11.25+ / day
Rampager's Krait Shell
Rare 80, craft for 2618
Expand Recipe
2 bought + 2 crafted
Rares
4489952
(-70%) profit

781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Dire Orrian Shield of Corruption
Rare 67, buy for 1018
1.23+ / day
Rampager's Iron Shield of Corruption
Rare 78, buy for 1414
11.25+ / day
Rampager's Krait Shell
Rare 80, craft for 2618
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Shell
Rare 80, craft for 2618
Expand Recipe
1 bought + 3 crafted
Rares
5194947
(-74%) profit

781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Dire Orrian Shield of Corruption
Rare 67, buy for 1018
1.23+ / day
Rampager's Krait Shell
Rare 80, craft for 2618
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Shell
Rare 80, craft for 2618
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Shell
Rare 80, craft for 2618
Expand Recipe
4 crafted
Rares
6131818
(-78%) profit

781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Rampager's Krait Shell
Rare 80, craft for 2618
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Shell
Rare 80, craft for 2618
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Shell
Rare 80, craft for 2618
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Shell
Rare 80, craft for 2618
Expand Recipe
Exotic Ingredients
PrecursorPrice to MFIngredient 1Ingredient 2Ingredient 3Ingredient 4

The Chosen
Exotic Weapon Shield 80
6.23+ / day
1200010

1590008

The cheapest
12 Exotics
used in the calculation
4 bought
Exotics
662574
(104%) profit

139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Dire Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, buy for 1592
14.64+ / day
Dire Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, buy for 1592
14.64+ / day
Dire Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, buy for 1592
14.64+ / day
Dire Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, buy for 1592
14.64+ / day
3 bought + 1 crafted
Exotics
2096350
(-36%) profit

139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Dire Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, buy for 1592
14.64+ / day
Dire Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, buy for 1592
14.64+ / day
Dire Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, buy for 1592
14.64+ / day
Rabid Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, craft for 15372
Expand Recipe
2 bought + 2 crafted
Exotics
3530126
(-62%) profit

139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Dire Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, buy for 1592
14.64+ / day
Dire Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, buy for 1592
14.64+ / day
Rabid Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, craft for 15372
Expand Recipe
Rabid Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, craft for 15372
Expand Recipe
1 bought + 3 crafted
Exotics
4963901
(-73%) profit

139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Dire Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, buy for 1592
14.64+ / day
Rabid Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, craft for 15372
Expand Recipe
Rabid Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, craft for 15372
Expand Recipe
Rabid Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, craft for 15372
Expand Recipe
4 crafted
Exotics
6397677
(-79%) profit

139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Rabid Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, craft for 15372
Expand Recipe
Rabid Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, craft for 15372
Expand Recipe
Rabid Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, craft for 15372
Expand Recipe
Rabid Pearl Shell
Exotic 80, craft for 15372
Expand Recipe


Help and Info:
 ● Gives a list of all precursors for you to select, then tells you the cheapest ways to make the precursor you selected by throwing them into the Mystic Forge.
 ● The top combination will have all purchased ingredients. The second combination will have 1 crafted and 3 purchased ingredients. The third combination will have 2 crafted and 2 purchased ingredients. The fourth combination will have 3 crafted and 1 purchased ingredients. The last combination will have all crafted ingredients. You can pick which you want to use.
 ● 'Precursor' is which precursor is being made, and the buy order and sell listing prices for that precursor.
 ● 'Price to MF' is how much it costs to buy all the ingredients that will give you 1 precursor (on average). % profit is if you're selling it. The price and number of items assumes you re-MF any products of failed attempts.
 ● 'Ingredient 1,2,3,4' is which are the cheapest ingredients to throw into the forge and how much to buy or craft them.
 ● These are all averages. That means there will be times when no precursor comes out for 1000 attempts, and times when you get 2 in a row, for example. The strategy is that with a statistically significant amount of tries, you will observe the average return.

Precursor Drop Rates:
 Drop rates is from research posted on reddit from the production of 289 precursors.
 1 in 5 promotes rare to exotic, but appears to have less chance of getting a precursor
 Average level of ingredients needs to be at least 75 to guarantee a level 80 (and thus, a precursor)
 1 in 139 attempts produces a precursor from exotic (start with 416 exotics, including throwing failures back in)
 1 in 781 attempts produces a precursor from rares (start with 2,342 rares, including throwing failures back in)