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Precursor Forging Tool

I am not sure of these numbers. I am 100% sure the listed ingredients are the cheapest to make the desired precursor, but I am not 100% on the average number of tries to get the precursor (the current estimate is from other people publishing their results - mostly from reddit's Nugkill).

Spirit Shard and Karma Items excluded (Allow SS and Karma items)

The Bard
Carcharias
Chaos Gun
The Chosen
The Colossus
Dawn + Dusk
The Energizer
Howl
The Hunter
Leaf of Kudzu
The Legend
The Lover
Rage
Rodgort's Flame
Spark
Storm
Tooth of Frostfang
Venom
Zap
Random Precursor from weapons
Random Precursor from any rare item

1 Mystic Forge Stone currently costs 143190 to buy (It's only recommended to use it to take the place of an item worth more than that, or you get them for free)

Rare Ingredients
PrecursorPrice to MFIngredient 1Ingredient 2Ingredient 3Ingredient 4

The Bard
Exotic Weapon Focus 80
8.01+ / day
474885

666994

The cheapest
9 Rares
used in the calculation
4 bought
Rares
2407757
(-76%) profit
781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Berserker's Soft Wood Focus of Peril
Rare 80, buy for 1028
51.60+ / day
Berserker's Soft Wood Focus of Peril
Rare 80, buy for 1028
51.60+ / day
Berserker's Soft Wood Focus of Peril
Rare 80, buy for 1028
51.60+ / day
Berserker's Soft Wood Focus of Peril
Rare 80, buy for 1028
51.60+ / day
3 bought + 1 crafted
Rares
2838717
(-80%) profit
781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Berserker's Soft Wood Focus of Peril
Rare 80, buy for 1028
51.60+ / day
Berserker's Soft Wood Focus of Peril
Rare 80, buy for 1028
51.60+ / day
Berserker's Soft Wood Focus of Peril
Rare 80, buy for 1028
51.60+ / day
Assassin's Godskull Effigy
Rare 65, craft for 1764
Expand Recipe
2 bought + 2 crafted
Rares
5632348
(-90%) profit
781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Berserker's Soft Wood Focus of Peril
Rare 80, buy for 1028
51.60+ / day
Berserker's Soft Wood Focus of Peril
Rare 80, buy for 1028
51.60+ / day
Assassin's Godskull Effigy
Rare 65, craft for 1764
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Star
Rare 80, craft for 5799
Expand Recipe
1 bought + 3 crafted
Rares
8425979
(-93%) profit
781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Berserker's Soft Wood Focus of Peril
Rare 80, buy for 1028
51.60+ / day
Assassin's Godskull Effigy
Rare 65, craft for 1764
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Star
Rare 80, craft for 5799
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Star
Rare 80, craft for 5799
Expand Recipe
4 crafted
Rares
1,1219610
(-95%) profit
781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Assassin's Godskull Effigy
Rare 65, craft for 1764
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Star
Rare 80, craft for 5799
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Star
Rare 80, craft for 5799
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Star
Rare 80, craft for 5799
Expand Recipe
Exotic Ingredients
PrecursorPrice to MFIngredient 1Ingredient 2Ingredient 3Ingredient 4

The Bard
Exotic Weapon Focus 80
8.01+ / day
474885

666994

The cheapest
9 Exotics
used in the calculation
4 bought
Exotics
1701802
(-67%) profit
139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Cleric's Soft Wood Focus of Peril
Exotic 75, buy for 4089
6.57-+ / day
Cleric's Soft Wood Focus of Peril
Exotic 75, buy for 4089
6.57-+ / day
Cleric's Soft Wood Focus of Peril
Exotic 75, buy for 4089
6.57-+ / day
Cleric's Soft Wood Focus of Peril
Exotic 75, buy for 4089
6.57-+ / day
3 bought + 1 crafted
Exotics
3116641
(-82%) profit
139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Berserker's Soft Wood Focus of Hobbling
Exotic 70, buy for 4018
2.29-+ / day
Cleric's Soft Wood Focus of Peril
Exotic 75, buy for 4089
6.57-+ / day
Cleric's Soft Wood Focus of Peril
Exotic 75, buy for 4089
6.57-+ / day
Bringer's Pearl Conch
Exotic 80, craft for 17758
Expand Recipe
2 bought + 2 crafted
Exotics
4531480
(-87%) profit
139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Berserker's Soft Wood Focus of Hobbling
Exotic 70, buy for 4018
2.29-+ / day
Berserker's Soft Wood Focus of Hobbling
Exotic 70, buy for 4018
2.29-+ / day
Bringer's Pearl Conch
Exotic 80, craft for 17758
Expand Recipe
Bringer's Pearl Conch
Exotic 80, craft for 17758
Expand Recipe
1 bought + 3 crafted
Exotics
5961093
(-90%) profit
139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Berserker's Soft Wood Focus of Hobbling
Exotic 70, buy for 4018
2.29-+ / day
Bringer's Pearl Conch
Exotic 80, craft for 17758
Expand Recipe
Bringer's Pearl Conch
Exotic 80, craft for 17758
Expand Recipe
Bringer's Pearl Conch
Exotic 80, craft for 17758
Expand Recipe
4 crafted
Exotics
7390707
(-92%) profit
139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Bringer's Pearl Conch
Exotic 80, craft for 17758
Expand Recipe
Bringer's Pearl Conch
Exotic 80, craft for 17758
Expand Recipe
Bringer's Pearl Conch
Exotic 80, craft for 17758
Expand Recipe
Bringer's Pearl Conch
Exotic 80, craft for 17758
Expand Recipe


Help and Info:
 ● Gives a list of all precursors for you to select, then tells you the cheapest ways to make the precursor you selected by throwing them into the Mystic Forge.
 ● The top combination will have all purchased ingredients. The second combination will have 1 crafted and 3 purchased ingredients. The third combination will have 2 crafted and 2 purchased ingredients. The fourth combination will have 3 crafted and 1 purchased ingredients. The last combination will have all crafted ingredients. You can pick which you want to use.
 ● 'Precursor' is which precursor is being made, and the buy order and sell listing prices for that precursor.
 ● 'Price to MF' is how much it costs to buy all the ingredients that will give you 1 precursor (on average). % profit is if you're selling it. The price and number of items assumes you re-MF any products of failed attempts.
 ● 'Ingredient 1,2,3,4' is which are the cheapest ingredients to throw into the forge and how much to buy or craft them.
 ● These are all averages. That means there will be times when no precursor comes out for 1000 attempts, and times when you get 2 in a row, for example. The strategy is that with a statistically significant amount of tries, you will observe the average return.

Precursor Drop Rates:
 Drop rates is from research posted on reddit from the production of 289 precursors.
 1 in 5 promotes rare to exotic, but appears to have less chance of getting a precursor
 Average level of ingredients needs to be at least 75 to guarantee a level 80 (and thus, a precursor)
 1 in 139 attempts produces a precursor from exotic (start with 416 exotics, including throwing failures back in)
 1 in 781 attempts produces a precursor from rares (start with 2,342 rares, including throwing failures back in)