I am not sure of these numbers. I am 100% sure the listed ingredients are the cheapest to make the desired precursor, but I am not 100% on the average number of tries to get the precursor (the current estimate is from other people publishing their results - mostly from reddit's Nugkill).
Spirit Shard and Karma Items excluded (Allow SS and Karma items)
The Bard
Carcharias
Chaos Gun
The Chosen
The Colossus
Dawn + Dusk
The Energizer
Howl
The Hunter
Leaf of Kudzu
The Legend
The Lover
Rage
Rodgort's Flame
Spark
Storm
Tooth of Frostfang
Venom
Zap
Random Precursor from weapons
Random Precursor from any rare item
1 Mystic Forge Stone currently costs 16
59
15
to buy (It's only recommended to use it to take the place of an item worth more than that, or you get them for free)| Rare Ingredients | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precursor | Price to MF | Ingredient 1 | Ingredient 2 | Ingredient 3 | Ingredient 4 |
 The Bard Exotic Weapon Focus 80 9.58+ / day  63 000782 9895The cheapest 10 Rares used in the calculation | 4 bought Rares 272 2780(-74%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Berserker's Soft Wood Focus of Serpent Slaying Rare 70, buy for 11 611.63-+ / day | Berserker's Soft Wood Focus of Serpent Slaying Rare 70, buy for 11 611.63-+ / day | Steam Gizmo Rare 80, buy for 11 641.15+ / day | Steam Gizmo Rare 80, buy for 11 641.15+ / day |
| 3 bought + 1 crafted Rares 333 0574(-79%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Steam Gizmo Rare 80, buy for 11 641.15+ / day | Steam Gizmo Rare 80, buy for 11 641.15+ / day | Steam Gizmo Rare 80, buy for 11 641.15+ / day | Assassin's Godskull Effigy Rare 65, craft for 21 96Expand Recipe | |
| 2 bought + 2 crafted Rares 661 5477(-89%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Steam Gizmo Rare 80, buy for 11 641.15+ / day | Steam Gizmo Rare 80, buy for 11 641.15+ / day | Assassin's Godskull Effigy Rare 65, craft for 21 96Expand Recipe | Valkyrie Krait Star Rare 80, craft for 67 74Expand Recipe | |
| 1 bought + 3 crafted Rares 990 0379(-93%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Steam Gizmo Rare 80, buy for 11 641.15+ / day | Assassin's Godskull Effigy Rare 65, craft for 21 96Expand Recipe | Valkyrie Krait Star Rare 80, craft for 67 74Expand Recipe | Valkyrie Krait Star Rare 80, craft for 67 74Expand Recipe | |
| 4 crafted Rares 1,318 5282(-95%) profit 781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares | Assassin's Godskull Effigy Rare 65, craft for 21 96Expand Recipe | Valkyrie Krait Star Rare 80, craft for 67 74Expand Recipe | Valkyrie Krait Star Rare 80, craft for 67 74Expand Recipe | Valkyrie Krait Star Rare 80, craft for 67 74Expand Recipe | |
| Exotic Ingredients | |||||
| Precursor | Price to MF | Ingredient 1 | Ingredient 2 | Ingredient 3 | Ingredient 4 |
The Bard Exotic Weapon Focus 80 9.58+ / day 63 000782 9895The cheapest 10 Exotics used in the calculation | 4 bought Exotics 139 7567(-50%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Magi's Pearl Conch Exotic 80, buy for 33 589.41-+ / day | Magi's Pearl Conch Exotic 80, buy for 33 589.41-+ / day | Magi's Pearl Conch Exotic 80, buy for 33 589.41-+ / day | Magi's Pearl Conch Exotic 80, buy for 33 589.41-+ / day |
| 3 bought + 1 crafted Exotics 314 2028(-78%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Magi's Pearl Conch Exotic 80, buy for 33 589.41-+ / day | Magi's Pearl Conch Exotic 80, buy for 33 589.41-+ / day | Magi's Pearl Conch Exotic 80, buy for 33 589.41-+ / day | Rabid Pearl Conch Exotic 80, craft for 2 0124Expand Recipe | |
| 2 bought + 2 crafted Exotics 488 6490(-86%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Magi's Pearl Conch Exotic 80, buy for 33 589.41-+ / day | Magi's Pearl Conch Exotic 80, buy for 33 589.41-+ / day | Rabid Pearl Conch Exotic 80, craft for 2 0124Expand Recipe | Rabid Pearl Conch Exotic 80, craft for 2 0124Expand Recipe | |
| 1 bought + 3 crafted Exotics 663 0952(-89%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Magi's Pearl Conch Exotic 80, buy for 33 589.41-+ / day | Rabid Pearl Conch Exotic 80, craft for 2 0124Expand Recipe | Rabid Pearl Conch Exotic 80, craft for 2 0124Expand Recipe | Rabid Pearl Conch Exotic 80, craft for 2 0124Expand Recipe | |
| 4 crafted Exotics 837 5413(-92%) profit 139 attempts = 416 initial exotics | Rabid Pearl Conch Exotic 80, craft for 2 0124Expand Recipe | Rabid Pearl Conch Exotic 80, craft for 2 0124Expand Recipe | Rabid Pearl Conch Exotic 80, craft for 2 0124Expand Recipe | Rabid Pearl Conch Exotic 80, craft for 2 0124Expand Recipe | |
Help and Info:
● Gives a list of all precursors for you to select, then tells you the cheapest ways to make the precursor you selected by throwing them into the Mystic Forge.
● The top combination will have all purchased ingredients. The second combination will have 1 crafted and 3 purchased ingredients. The third combination will have 2 crafted and 2 purchased ingredients. The fourth combination will have 3 crafted and 1 purchased ingredients. The last combination will have all crafted ingredients. You can pick which you want to use.
● 'Precursor' is which precursor is being made, and the buy order and sell listing prices for that precursor.
● 'Price to MF' is how much it costs to buy all the ingredients that will give you 1 precursor (on average). % profit is if you're selling it. The price and number of items assumes you re-MF any products of failed attempts.
● 'Ingredient 1,2,3,4' is which are the cheapest ingredients to throw into the forge and how much to buy or craft them.
● These are all averages. That means there will be times when no precursor comes out for 1000 attempts, and times when you get 2 in a row, for example. The strategy is that with a statistically significant amount of tries, you will observe the average return.
Precursor Drop Rates:
Drop rates is from research posted on reddit from the production of 289 precursors.
1 in 5 promotes rare to exotic, but appears to have less chance of getting a precursor
Average level of ingredients needs to be at least 75 to guarantee a level 80 (and thus, a precursor)
1 in 139 attempts produces a precursor from exotic (start with 416 exotics, including throwing failures back in)
1 in 781 attempts produces a precursor from rares (start with 2,342 rares, including throwing failures back in)