GW2 Profits
Research
Items Tool
Recipes Tool
Delta Price Tool
Suggestions Tool
Process
Craft Everything Tool
Crafting List Tool
Mystic Forge Crafting Tool
Precursor Forging Tool
Flip
Spread Tool
Bag and Salvageable Tool
Equipment Salvage Tool
Luck and Basic Materials Salvage Tool
Expand All Recipes
Precursor Forging Tool

I am not sure of these numbers. I am 100% sure the listed ingredients are the cheapest to make the desired precursor, but I am not 100% on the average number of tries to get the precursor (the current estimate is from other people publishing their results - mostly from reddit's Nugkill).

Spirit Shard and Karma Items excluded (Allow SS and Karma items)

The Bard
Carcharias
Chaos Gun
The Chosen
The Colossus
Dawn + Dusk
The Energizer
Howl
The Hunter
Leaf of Kudzu
The Legend
The Lover
Rage
Rodgort's Flame
Spark
Storm
Tooth of Frostfang
Venom
Zap
Random Precursor from weapons
Random Precursor from any rare item

1 Mystic Forge Stone currently costs 144540 to buy (It's only recommended to use it to take the place of an item worth more than that, or you get them for free)

Rare Ingredients
PrecursorPrice to MFIngredient 1Ingredient 2Ingredient 3Ingredient 4

Howl
Exotic Weapon Warhorn 80
6.80+ / day
860008

1049999

The cheapest
8 Rares
used in the calculation
4 bought
Rares
2442890
(-63%) profit
781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Rampager's Soft Wood Warhorn of Peril
Rare 78, buy for 1043
28.18-+ / day
Rampager's Soft Wood Warhorn of Peril
Rare 78, buy for 1043
28.18-+ / day
Rampager's Soft Wood Warhorn of Peril
Rare 78, buy for 1043
28.18-+ / day
Rampager's Soft Wood Warhorn of Peril
Rare 78, buy for 1043
28.18-+ / day
3 bought + 1 crafted
Rares
2884975
(-69%) profit
781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Rampager's Soft Wood Warhorn of Peril
Rare 78, buy for 1043
28.18-+ / day
Rampager's Soft Wood Warhorn of Peril
Rare 78, buy for 1043
28.18-+ / day
Cleric's Soft Wood Warhorn of Life
Rare 80, buy for 1080
68.18+ / day
Assassin's Godskull Trumpet
Rare 65, craft for 1761
Expand Recipe
2 bought + 2 crafted
Rares
5341919
(-83%) profit
781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Rampager's Soft Wood Warhorn of Peril
Rare 78, buy for 1043
28.18-+ / day
Rampager's Soft Wood Warhorn of Peril
Rare 78, buy for 1043
28.18-+ / day
Assassin's Godskull Trumpet
Rare 65, craft for 1761
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Whelk
Rare 80, craft for 5276
Expand Recipe
1 bought + 3 crafted
Rares
7820527
(-89%) profit
781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Rampager's Soft Wood Warhorn of Peril
Rare 78, buy for 1043
28.18-+ / day
Assassin's Godskull Trumpet
Rare 65, craft for 1761
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Whelk
Rare 80, craft for 5276
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Whelk
Rare 80, craft for 5276
Expand Recipe
4 crafted
Rares
1,0299135
(-91%) profit
781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Assassin's Godskull Trumpet
Rare 65, craft for 1761
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Whelk
Rare 80, craft for 5276
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Whelk
Rare 80, craft for 5276
Expand Recipe
Rampager's Krait Whelk
Rare 80, craft for 5276
Expand Recipe
Exotic Ingredients
PrecursorPrice to MFIngredient 1Ingredient 2Ingredient 3Ingredient 4

Howl
Exotic Weapon Warhorn 80
6.80+ / day
860008

1049999

The cheapest
9 Exotics
used in the calculation
4 bought
Exotics
1496620
(-40%) profit
139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Carrion Tribal Warhorn of Vision
Exotic 70, buy for 2736
1.77+ / day
Carrion Tribal Warhorn of Vision
Exotic 70, buy for 2736
1.77+ / day
Cavalier's Pearl Siren
Exotic 80, buy for 4456
9.73+ / day
Cavalier's Pearl Siren
Exotic 80, buy for 4456
9.73+ / day
3 bought + 1 crafted
Exotics
2907817
(-69%) profit
139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Carrion Tribal Warhorn of Vision
Exotic 70, buy for 2736
1.77+ / day
Carrion Tribal Warhorn of Vision
Exotic 70, buy for 2736
1.77+ / day
Cavalier's Pearl Siren
Exotic 80, buy for 4456
9.73+ / day
Bringer's Pearl Siren
Exotic 80, craft for 18019
Expand Recipe
2 bought + 2 crafted
Exotics
4319014
(-79%) profit
139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Carrion Tribal Warhorn of Vision
Exotic 70, buy for 2736
1.77+ / day
Carrion Tribal Warhorn of Vision
Exotic 70, buy for 2736
1.77+ / day
Bringer's Pearl Siren
Exotic 80, craft for 18019
Expand Recipe
Bringer's Pearl Siren
Exotic 80, craft for 18019
Expand Recipe
1 bought + 3 crafted
Exotics
5909174
(-85%) profit
139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Carrion Tribal Warhorn of Vision
Exotic 70, buy for 2736
1.77+ / day
Bringer's Pearl Siren
Exotic 80, craft for 18019
Expand Recipe
Bringer's Pearl Siren
Exotic 80, craft for 18019
Expand Recipe
Bringer's Pearl Siren
Exotic 80, craft for 18019
Expand Recipe
4 crafted
Exotics
7499333
(-88%) profit
139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Bringer's Pearl Siren
Exotic 80, craft for 18019
Expand Recipe
Bringer's Pearl Siren
Exotic 80, craft for 18019
Expand Recipe
Bringer's Pearl Siren
Exotic 80, craft for 18019
Expand Recipe
Bringer's Pearl Siren
Exotic 80, craft for 18019
Expand Recipe


Help and Info:
 ● Gives a list of all precursors for you to select, then tells you the cheapest ways to make the precursor you selected by throwing them into the Mystic Forge.
 ● The top combination will have all purchased ingredients. The second combination will have 1 crafted and 3 purchased ingredients. The third combination will have 2 crafted and 2 purchased ingredients. The fourth combination will have 3 crafted and 1 purchased ingredients. The last combination will have all crafted ingredients. You can pick which you want to use.
 ● 'Precursor' is which precursor is being made, and the buy order and sell listing prices for that precursor.
 ● 'Price to MF' is how much it costs to buy all the ingredients that will give you 1 precursor (on average). % profit is if you're selling it. The price and number of items assumes you re-MF any products of failed attempts.
 ● 'Ingredient 1,2,3,4' is which are the cheapest ingredients to throw into the forge and how much to buy or craft them.
 ● These are all averages. That means there will be times when no precursor comes out for 1000 attempts, and times when you get 2 in a row, for example. The strategy is that with a statistically significant amount of tries, you will observe the average return.

Precursor Drop Rates:
 Drop rates is from research posted on reddit from the production of 289 precursors.
 1 in 5 promotes rare to exotic, but appears to have less chance of getting a precursor
 Average level of ingredients needs to be at least 75 to guarantee a level 80 (and thus, a precursor)
 1 in 139 attempts produces a precursor from exotic (start with 416 exotics, including throwing failures back in)
 1 in 781 attempts produces a precursor from rares (start with 2,342 rares, including throwing failures back in)