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Precursor Forging Tool

I am not sure of these numbers. I am 100% sure the listed ingredients are the cheapest to make the desired precursor, but I am not 100% on the average number of tries to get the precursor (the current estimate is from other people publishing their results - mostly from reddit's Nugkill).

Spirit Shard and Karma Items excluded (Allow SS and Karma items)

The Bard
Carcharias
Chaos Gun
The Chosen
The Colossus
Dawn + Dusk
The Energizer
Howl
The Hunter
Leaf of Kudzu
The Legend
The Lover
Rage
Rodgort's Flame
Spark
Storm
Tooth of Frostfang
Venom
Zap
Random Precursor from weapons
Random Precursor from any rare item

1 Mystic Forge Stone currently costs 171990 to buy (It's only recommended to use it to take the place of an item worth more than that, or you get them for free)

Rare Ingredients
PrecursorPrice to MFIngredient 1Ingredient 2Ingredient 3Ingredient 4
Dawn / Dusk
Exotic Weapon Greatsword 80
2.27+ / day
5455006

6124999

The cheapest
18 Rares
used in the calculation
4 bought
Rares
4599449
(13%) profit

781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Dire Aureate Highlander Greatsword of Energy
Rare 74, buy for 1697
5.59-+ / day
Dire Aureate Highlander Greatsword of Energy
Rare 74, buy for 1697
5.59-+ / day
Dire Aureate Highlander Greatsword of Energy
Rare 74, buy for 1697
5.59-+ / day
Rabid Aureate Highlander Greatsword
Rare 80, buy for 2764
1.43-+ / day
3 bought + 1 crafted
Rares
5287463
(-2%) profit

781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Dire Aureate Highlander Greatsword of Energy
Rare 74, buy for 1697
5.59-+ / day
Dire Aureate Highlander Greatsword of Energy
Rare 74, buy for 1697
5.59-+ / day
Dire Aureate Highlander Greatsword of Energy
Rare 74, buy for 1697
5.59-+ / day
Valkyrie Krait Slayer
Rare 80, craft for 3939
Expand Recipe
2 bought + 2 crafted
Rares
6403510
(-19%) profit

781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Rampager's Iron Greatsword of Grawl Slaying
Rare 71, buy for 1529
3.71-+ / day
Rampager's Iron Greatsword of Grawl Slaying
Rare 71, buy for 1529
3.71-+ / day
Valkyrie Krait Slayer
Rare 80, craft for 3939
Expand Recipe
Valkyrie Krait Slayer
Rare 80, craft for 3939
Expand Recipe
1 bought + 3 crafted
Rares
7593336
(-31%) profit

781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Shaman's Norn Greatsword of Water
Rare 60, buy for 1151
53.67-+ / day
Valkyrie Krait Slayer
Rare 80, craft for 3939
Expand Recipe
Valkyrie Krait Slayer
Rare 80, craft for 3939
Expand Recipe
Valkyrie Krait Slayer
Rare 80, craft for 3939
Expand Recipe
4 crafted
Rares
9225833
(-44%) profit

781 attempts = 2,342 initial rares
Valkyrie Krait Slayer
Rare 80, craft for 3939
Expand Recipe
Valkyrie Krait Slayer
Rare 80, craft for 3939
Expand Recipe
Valkyrie Krait Slayer
Rare 80, craft for 3939
Expand Recipe
Valkyrie Krait Slayer
Rare 80, craft for 3939
Expand Recipe
Exotic Ingredients
PrecursorPrice to MFIngredient 1Ingredient 2Ingredient 3Ingredient 4
Dawn / Dusk
Exotic Weapon Greatsword 80
2.27+ / day
5455006

6124999

The cheapest
13 Exotics
used in the calculation
4 bought
Exotics
7294151
(-29%) profit

139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Carrion Tribal Greatsword of Vision
Exotic 70, buy for 14416
1.23+ / day
Carrion Tribal Greatsword of Vision
Exotic 70, buy for 14416
1.23+ / day
The Castellan's Quality
Exotic 80, buy for 20636
7.33+ / day
The Castellan's Quality
Exotic 80, buy for 20636
7.33+ / day
3 bought + 1 crafted
Exotics
6695045
(-22%) profit

139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Carrion Tribal Greatsword of Vision
Exotic 70, buy for 14416
1.23+ / day
Carrion Tribal Greatsword of Vision
Exotic 70, buy for 14416
1.23+ / day
The Castellan's Quality
Exotic 80, buy for 20636
7.33+ / day
Diviner's Pearl Broadsword
Exotic 80, craft for 14878
Expand Recipe
2 bought + 2 crafted
Exotics
6095939
(-15%) profit

139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Carrion Tribal Greatsword of Vision
Exotic 70, buy for 14416
1.23+ / day
Carrion Tribal Greatsword of Vision
Exotic 70, buy for 14416
1.23+ / day
Diviner's Pearl Broadsword
Exotic 80, craft for 14878
Expand Recipe
Diviner's Pearl Broadsword
Exotic 80, craft for 14878
Expand Recipe
1 bought + 3 crafted
Exotics
5910942
(-12%) profit

139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Cleric's Iron Greatsword of Rage
Exotic 64, buy for 12176
1.05+ / day
Diviner's Pearl Broadsword
Exotic 80, craft for 14878
Expand Recipe
Diviner's Pearl Broadsword
Exotic 80, craft for 14878
Expand Recipe
Diviner's Pearl Broadsword
Exotic 80, craft for 14878
Expand Recipe
4 crafted
Exotics
6192079
(-16%) profit

139 attempts = 416 initial exotics
Diviner's Pearl Broadsword
Exotic 80, craft for 14878
Expand Recipe
Diviner's Pearl Broadsword
Exotic 80, craft for 14878
Expand Recipe
Diviner's Pearl Broadsword
Exotic 80, craft for 14878
Expand Recipe
Diviner's Pearl Broadsword
Exotic 80, craft for 14878
Expand Recipe


Help and Info:
 ● Gives a list of all precursors for you to select, then tells you the cheapest ways to make the precursor you selected by throwing them into the Mystic Forge.
 ● The top combination will have all purchased ingredients. The second combination will have 1 crafted and 3 purchased ingredients. The third combination will have 2 crafted and 2 purchased ingredients. The fourth combination will have 3 crafted and 1 purchased ingredients. The last combination will have all crafted ingredients. You can pick which you want to use.
 ● 'Precursor' is which precursor is being made, and the buy order and sell listing prices for that precursor.
 ● 'Price to MF' is how much it costs to buy all the ingredients that will give you 1 precursor (on average). % profit is if you're selling it. The price and number of items assumes you re-MF any products of failed attempts.
 ● 'Ingredient 1,2,3,4' is which are the cheapest ingredients to throw into the forge and how much to buy or craft them.
 ● These are all averages. That means there will be times when no precursor comes out for 1000 attempts, and times when you get 2 in a row, for example. The strategy is that with a statistically significant amount of tries, you will observe the average return.

Precursor Drop Rates:
 Drop rates is from research posted on reddit from the production of 289 precursors.
 1 in 5 promotes rare to exotic, but appears to have less chance of getting a precursor
 Average level of ingredients needs to be at least 75 to guarantee a level 80 (and thus, a precursor)
 1 in 139 attempts produces a precursor from exotic (start with 416 exotics, including throwing failures back in)
 1 in 781 attempts produces a precursor from rares (start with 2,342 rares, including throwing failures back in)